Chief Minister Vijay's district visits are increasingly acquiring political significance, coming as they do ahead of a series of crucial Assembly by-elections that could determine how comfortably his minority government functions.
After visiting Pudukkottai on Monday, where he inaugurated a new bus terminus and government projects worth over Rs 60 crore, Vijay is in Erode's Perundurai today for a government programme involving women's self-help groups.
The two visits have something in common beyond their official agenda - both districts have Assembly constituencies awaiting by-elections. Pudukkottai has Viralimalai, while Erode has Perundurai.
Perundurai fell vacant after its AIADMK MLA S Jayakumar resigned and subsequently joined the ruling TVK. Similarly, Viralimalai's AIADMK MLA and former minister C Vijayabaskar resigned and switched to TVK. Vijayabaskar faces corruption allegations in the gutka scam dating back to the previous AIADMK regime.
The timing and choice of destinations have fuelled speculation about whether the Chief Minister is also using government engagements to establish a political presence ahead of the contests. The ruling TVK, however, has maintained that the programmes are centred on public welfare.
In Pudukkottai, Vijay also laid the foundation stone for projects worth Rs 11.72 crore, held a roadshow and received petitions from the public. The new bus terminus was among the prominent inaugurations.
The political calculation behind these visits becomes clearer when viewed against the numbers in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly.
The TVK won 108 seats in the Assembly elections. Vijay subsequently vacated one of the two constituencies he had won, bringing the party's effective strength down to 107. With its victories in the recent Dharapuram and Madurantakam by-elections, the party's tally has risen to 109.
But that is still nine short of the 118 required for a simple majority in the full House.
The government currently depends on the support of the Congress, which has five MLAs, and the VCK and IUML, which have two each. The CPI and CPM, with two MLAs apiece, extend support from outside the government.
There are five more constituencies awaiting by-elections - Viralimalai, Perundurai, Karur, Tiruchy East and Ambasamudram.
If TVK wins all five, its strength would rise to 114. While that would still leave it short of a majority on its own, it would significantly improve its position in the Assembly and reduce its dependence on supporting parties.
That makes the upcoming by-elections politically important for Vijay, beyond the individual constituencies.
BY-POLL RESULTS: DMK RESILIENCE AND TVK'S RURAL GAINS
The recent victories in Dharapuram and Madurantakam have given TVK two additional MLAs. But the results have also offered some interesting electoral signals.
Both constituencies had been represented by AIADMK legislators who switched to TVK and contested the by-elections on its ticket. They retained their seats, but the victory margins were not particularly large for a ruling party.
In Dharapuram, P Sathyabama defeated the DMK's S Suganya by 9,471 votes. In Madurantakam, K Maragatham Kumaravel won by 20,040 votes over the DMK's I Paranthamen.
By-elections in Tamil Nadu have traditionally tended to favour the party in power, often with substantial victory margins. Against that backdrop, the two results, though victories for TVK, also point to the DMK retaining much of its electoral support despite the change in political circumstances.
At the same time, TVK has certainly improved its vote share in these largely rural constituencies, where its organisational and electoral presence was relatively limited. Its vote share rose from 23.23 per cent to 37.02 per cent in Dharapuram and from 31.32 per cent to 39.96 per cent in Madurantakam.
The DMK's vote share, meanwhile, dipped only marginally - by 0.42 percentage points in Dharapuram and 1.03 percentage points in Madurantakam. This suggests a degree of resilience in the DMK's electoral base, even as TVK made significant gains.
